Saddam Eyes Endgame, Gathers in His Elite Forces

The Iraq war is resolving itself into a battle of wits whose lines are deliberately blurred by the bravado, ambiguous maneuvers and half-truths propagated by both sides. The protagonists are US General Tommy Franks and Saddam Hussein. The score on Day 12 of the war is even. DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources and military analysts stress that both are perfectly aware that the war will end in an American battlefield victory. With an eye on the endgame, the two are maneuvering over its cost.

Exactly!! There are no two ways about the fact that the Coalition forces are going to win this war. It is inconceivable that the combined might of US and UK air-force, army, navy and dolphins could be defeated by the Iraqis. The only thing that matters for both the sides is the cost of war.
Franks’ goal is a victory with the lowest number of American casualties, whereas Saddam, who has no inhibitions about the human cost to his army and people, seeks to extract from the conflict enough leverage to dictate the conditions for his and his sons’ survival.

Saddam has been playing a game of chess in last couple of days. He has pulled back his Republican Guard from many major cities. In doing so he has beefed up the Republican Guard presence around his two centres of power. viz. Baghdad and Tikrit. All indications of the fact that Saddam knows that the war will never result in an Iraqi victory. Only thing that remains is to salvage his pride.

On another front, the Sunni Saddam is striving to enlist a powerful weapon, the rival Shiah, Iraq’s largest population segment.
DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources report that, Sunday, March 30, Iran’s spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei directed Iraqi Shiites not to rise up against Saddam Hussein or help the US-UK coalition topple his regime. The order was conveyed through their leaders – the Tehran-based SCIRI (Supreme Council of Islamic Revolution in Iraq) and the Dawa Party. The Tehran government’s calculus was simple: The Shiites can afford to stand aside while the Iraqis and Americans spill each other’s blood. The Shiites will gather the spoils whoever comes out on top.
Saddam, picking up fast on the Tehran-Shiite strategy, directed his spokesmen to start using Shiite terminology. The Iraqi officer who blew himself up to murder four American soldiers near Najef was posthumously renamed Al-Husayn Ben Ali after the son of the first Iraqi Shiite leader who lived in the Karbala region in the seventh century. This gesture was aimed at making the suicide bomber a martyr honored by the Shiites.

In the Arab world, its all about being a martyr for a cause. If the Shiites view the suicide bomber’s death in the light that Saddam wants them to see, any hopes of a Shiite upsrising in the North or anywhere in Iraq would remain a pipe-dream for the Allies.

It is hard for the American psy-op machine to get a handle on these arcane yet tidal semantic currents or fit the coalition message into their powerful religious context. In the race for the hearts of the Shiites who make up more than half of Iraq’s population Saddam has the advantage of being able to manipulate these nuances, leaving coalition forces to address the Shiites in what sounds to them like an alien tongue.
The price for this unfamiliarity with shifting local mores was paid on Sunday, March 30, when British forces launched Operation James in the Basra region and failed to make headway after finding themselves let down by the predominantly Shiite citizenry. For Basra’s Shiites, the Imam Ali is clearly a far more potent icon than 007.

Clearly, Gen. Franks needs to chalk a strategy that takes into account Saddam’s mind-games. Flyers and pamphlets do not make as much of a psychological impact as do the subtle communal machinations of the tyrant of Baghdad.

The battle between Donald Rumsfeld and The Pentagon

As the ground campaign against Saddam Hussein faltered last week, with attenuated supply lines and a lack of immediate reinforcements, there was anger in the Pentagon. Several senior war planners complained to me in interviews that Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and his inner circle of civilian advisers, who had been chiefly responsible for persuading President Bush to lead the country into war, had insisted on micromanaging the war’s operational details. Rumsfeld’s team took over crucial aspects of the day-to-day logistical planning—traditionally, an area in which the uniformed military excels—and Rumsfeld repeatedly overruled the senior Pentagon planners on the Joint Staff, the operating arm of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. “He thought he knew better,” one senior planner said. “He was the decision-maker at every turn.”[link via WarFilter]

The real battle, folks, is yet to begin!

Who Are Saddam’s Most Loyal Forces?

Republican Guard
60,000-100,000
Controlled by Saddam’s younger son and heir, Qusay, the Guard includes three divisions deployed around Baghdad and one near Saddam’s hometown of Tikrit. Guard forces crushed a Shi’ite uprising in Basra in 1991. Though the Guard’s heavy weaponry is outdated, U.S. officials believe Saddam may have deployed chemical weapons to the Medina Division.

Special Republican Guard
15,000-25,000
Largely recruited from Saddam’s al-Bu Nasir tribe and other loyal groups, SRG troops are scattered throughout Baghdad and well-trained in urban combat. Its units protect Saddam and top Baath Party officials.

Fedayeen Saddam (”Saddam’s Men of Sacrifice”)
20,000-25,000
Formed in 1995, the fedayeen handpicks members as teenagers from loyal tribal areas and are considered among the fiercest of Saddam’s fighters. Often disguised in civilian garb, fedayeen units have mounted attacks against coalition troops. Operating outside the law, the group has a “death squadron” that executes people in their homes

Al Quds (Jerusalem) Army
Size unknown
A volunteer civilian group, the Quds militia was founded by Saddam in September 2000 with the supposed purpose of “liberating Palestine.” Now providing domestic defense, Quds fighters (which include women) are trained in basic combat. They have staged guerrilla attacks outside Baghdad, then faded into residential areas when pursued

Secret Police and Spies
15,000-25,000
Saddam has eight overlapping security agencies. These include layers of domestic and foreign spies, guerrilla operatives and “enforcers” who intimidate Iraqis to fight. Qusay leads the most powerful agencies, and members may have access to chemical or biological weapons. The U.S. believes more than 300 agents are working abroad under diplomatic cover
[from the April 7, 2003 issue of the TIME magazine]

And I’m sure the Allies will face a tough resistance from these forces. They are highly motivated and loyal to Saddam, unlike the rabble that is the regulation Iraqi army. Moreover, these forces will fight to the last man and probably use the civilians as shields, making it a tough urban battle in the Baghdad streets. Here, the air-superiority of the Coalition forces will not mean much, unless they are ready for huge (and I mean, huge!!) collateral damages.

Testing times, for sure!