Anatomy of a party going downhill

After the defeat in the Maharashtra assembly polls, BJP and Shiv Sena have done what they do best after an electoral loss – BJP has gone into an introspective mode as its top leaders started analysing the defeat and Shiv Sena has gone into a defensive mode as its leader has started blaming every Tom, Dick and Harry for their defeat (so far he’s blamed the rebels, the muslims and even the hapless Rajdeep Sardesai!)

I wonder why Thackeray wants to blame the rebels! He did not seem to mind them in the 1995 elections when, being 6 short of a majority, the BJP-Sena combine had accepted the support of 45 independents, majority of whom were rebels dis-satisfied with Sharad Pawar, the then Chief Minister of Maharashtra.

Actually, Sena’s fall from public favour is its own doing. Shiv Sena has always enjoyed grassroots support among the local middle class Mumbaikars who form the majority of the electorate. Prior to 1995, Sena used to be at the forefront in organizing local events and functions. When it came to supporting box-cricket or kabaddi or wrestling tournaments, it would be the Shiv Sena which would lead the way. Sena would set up stalls selling inexpensive sweets or firecrackers during Diwali. At the start of the academic year, Shiv Sena would set up stalls to sell inexpensive stationery for poorer students. This meant that the Sena leaders, uninhibited by the trappings of power, were always closely in touch with common people, more importantly, the youth. As such, these people formed a loyal vote-bank for the party. Using these people as a springboard, Shiv Sena came to power in BMC and subsequently in the Maharashtra assembly.

Power corrupts. And so… once in power, this grassroots contact was broken. Sena support for local event like the ones mentioned before was not as forthcoming as it used to be. Leaders who would celebrate festivals among the locals, as one of them, started paying token visits to their constituencies. As a result, loyal Sena voters felt disillusioned and gradually started shifting away from the party. The middle-class marathi manoos somehow felt betrayed. This space, vacated by Shiv Sena, was deftly filled by the emergence of Sharad Pawar’s NCP. Slowly but surely, box-cricket tournaments and kabbadi matches started getting organized under the banner bearing the clock (NCP’s symbol). Shiv Sena, looking towards Delhi, had slackened its hold on the only loyal following it ever had. And the results, ever since, have proved that Sena has been sliding down the slope, gathering pace as the time goes on.

So, rather than spread the blame right, left and centre, it would be prudent for Shiv Sena to accept that it has indeed lost ground among its traditional loyalists and probably do something about it.

Of course, this isn’t the only reason for the defeat of the Sena-BJP combine in the polls. Not by a long way. But I do believe that this is one of the key reasons.