Its all about oil, baby!

Now that the US (through the newly appointed Condoleeza Rice) is making pre-invasion noises about Iran’s nuclear program, India should sit up and protest!!

I know it is too much to expect from a soft-state. India had tactfully endorsed (through its ‘middle-path’ approach) the US action in Iraq. There were of course token protests from the usual suspects and the internet savvy youth considered Bush to be the worst person since Hitler. But on the whole, India could not go against an action which sought to replace a dictatorship by a democracy.

But now… things are completely different! Iran is a democracy. But that is merely a moral justification for a case against an invasion against Iran. India’s resistance of any action against Iran should not stem for morality but from its self-interests!!

The recently announced oil pipeline from Iran to India is going to go a long way in satisfying India’s growing thirst for energy. The importance of this pipeline can be gauged from the fact that India has agreed without the usual posturings to let the pipeline run through Pakistan. As Swaminathan Aiyar observes in his weekly column in Times of India, “Putting energy security before conventional security, India suddenly views Pakistan as a potential partner, not just a foe“. He also talks about upping the ante and proposing a grand pipeline from Iran to China, passing through Pakistan and India. This will not only be in the Chinese interests, but also hugely benefit the Indians who can charge the Chinese a great deal in transit fees. These transit fees can pay the charges that India will need to fork out to Pakistan as transit fees and still earn India a tidy profit.

But there is more to a possible pipeline to China than just profit. With China in the picture, the US will have to think twice before initiating an adventure in Iran. This will be just the thing that India needs for India cannot afford to miss out on the Iranian oil given its continuously rising oil needs. If the US does indeed do an Iraq in Iran, the oil pipeline to India will be seriously jeopardized… at least in the short to medium term. Swaminathan Aiyar’s notes this point quite astutely…

The USA is desperately trying to isolate Iran and undermine its economy. The last thing the USA wants is a great and glorious partnership between Iran, Pakistan, India and China.

The USA is not in a position to force China or India to desist from a pipeline.

Thus in a single stroke, India can achieve,
1. Partial fulfilment of its oil needs at an economical price,
2. Reasonable amount of peace in the sub-continent,
3. Some useful foreign exchange,
4. Continued position on the moral high ground as far as its opposition to the US threat to Iran’s sovereignty.

Who says it’s not all about oil?!