Posts from — March 2007

India can forget about the Net Run Rate (NRR) calculations. They need a win against Sri Lanka, any which way and they are through to the Super Eight stage. Here’s an analysis of why this is so.

After crushing Bermuda, India have managed to give a healthy boost to its Net Run Rate (NRR) which now stands at +2.51. For details on how this figure has been arrived at, read this explanation.

Am I the only one who thinks Aamir Khan has hammed it up in his latest Coca Cola ad (Sab ka thanda ek hain)?!

In their loss to an exuberant and bold Bangladesh side, the Indian team (flat and knotted up with tension) created possibly the worst possible scenario for themselves in Group B!

Looking at the remaining matches in the group, one cannot help but notice that India’s path to the next round has become difficult… almost impossible! Lets look at a probable scenario with the following results…

India beat Bermuda
Sri Lanka beat Bangladesh
India beat Sri Lanka
Bangladesh beat Bermuda

This would result in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and India having 4 points each. But Bangladesh, having beaten India, would be placed above India in the points table. And all would come down to winning margins. For India to be able to qualify for the Super Eights stage, Sri Lanka would need to beat Bangladesh by a narrow margin and India would need beat Sri Lanka by a huge margin. And even this scenario assumes that India beat Bermuda by an obscene margin!

Just going through the above scenario makes it pretty much clear that the probability of it panning out as described is quite low. Given the form they showed against Bangladesh, the assumption that India would beat Sri Lanka (by any sort of margin) requires a big leap of faith! Also, given the form that Sri Lanka are in, it may happen that they beat Bangladesh by a comfortable margin.

Whew! … India has really painted itself into a corner! And they not only need to play like tigers to get out of that corner, but also keep hoping that other matches follow a pattern favourable for them! An absolutely rare case of ability and hope converging!

But then… as they say… if you believe in something hard enough, the entire universe will conspire to make it happen!

[cross-posted at One-Day Mataram]

Apparently the Sensex has lost 2400 points in 2 weeks. Whatever the reasons, it does feel like “easy come, easy go”.